On the heels of their first series win, Miami gets the chance these next four days to try out their reawakened lumber against the Mets’ wood-chipper of a rotation this weekend in New York. Not an easy assignment, especially with de facto ace Henderson Alvarez out, and Dan Haren not pitching in the series. But without further ado, let’s break it down.
Why Miami Wins The Series
- Strike 1- Defense. The Marlins have been better defensively thus far, and in what could be a low scoring series, someone is likely to lose a game on a little bounce or fielding miscue. Miami, despite the overall record, has been better at corralling those bounces.
- Strike 2- David isn’t playing. Mets third-basemen David Wright, who’s only a career .326 hitter against the Marlins, was recently placed on the DL. A perennial Marlin killer, it certainly doesn’t hurt that New York will be adjusting to changing their lineup at the same time Miami’s is returning to full strength.
- Strike 3- Things are clicking. Cite Dee Gordon waking up the bats in the clubhouse the other day. Cite the relative explosion of offense the last few games. Pair that with what has remained consistently good starting pitching, factor in that three of Miami’s four SPs in the series have career ERAs of 3.00 or less vs the Mets, and you could easily make a case for Miami at least splitting this series.
Why New York Wins The Series
- Strike 1- Consistently better offense. While both clubs have been about equal in terms of run production overall, the Mets have a ten point lead in batting average in a series where they will have the advantage on the pitching rubber three times out of four.
- Strike 2- David IS playing. David Phelps has a career ERA of 108.0 against the Mets. Now yes, that was in 1/3 of an inning- his only recorded appearance- so naturally the number is a bit inflated. But the larger point is that his presence on the mound Friday night means that an experienced relief arm is missing from the pen, and more importantly, that Henderson Alvarez is not. Basically if you include Jose Fernandez, Miami is missing their two best pitchers, and going up against two healthy aces in Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom. On the road.
- Strike 3- Matt Harvey. Cheating a bit, though pitching really is the concern here. Harvey boasts a career ERA of 3.52 against the Marlins. Now that in itself isn’t necessarily scary. What is scary is that Harvey’s mark represents the worst average in the rotation against the Marlins. DeGrom has dominated with sub 2.00 numbers. Even Dillon Gee is sub 3.00, and that’s probably the only game in which Miami will be the favorite in the series.